Post-Draft Power Rankings
- Al Ohlinger
- Sep 12, 2021
- 10 min read
Welcome to opening Sunday of the 8th season of the Breakfast League. Please read the following to see how I analyze the draft.
When I do these post-draft analyses, I always have some key areas I look for that might vary a bit year to year, but mostly stay the same. First and foremost: your team’s starting running backs. Sometimes this is your RB1, RB2, and RB3, but this year, since running back is so thin in my opinion, you’re excused if you only have two good RB’s. However, any additional “Top 24” (that’s you RB1’s and RB2’s) that are on your team are an excellent bonus.
The second thing I look for: did you draft a D/ST or kicker early, or take more than one D/ST or kicker? If you did, that automatically moves you down the list. You’re just missing too much value. I’ll accept a pick that’s 12th round or later, but any earlier than that is just too soon.
Next, I look at your QB/TE slots. Did you take one or both early? (Early defined as first 6 rounds) If you did, how did you make up the value lost at your RB/WR spots? It’s possible to do, but tricky to pull off in practice. A good QB/TE can indeed make the difference in matchups, but in my opinion, it’s easier to find value at these spots later in the draft. That doesn’t mean I didn’t immediately groan seeing that I go against Mahomes in week 1 though!
Finally, I look at WR. This, in my opinion is the easiest position to have 2, 3, or even 4 startable players on your roster at the same time, but it is still worth checking out. If you don’t, you really kind of messed something up in your draft.
Listed below are the results of this year’s draft, sorted by team. Round 1, Pick 1 is at the top left, and you can snake your way down the table, meaning that Round 2, Pick 1 is on the right side of the table and you go right to left in even rounds. This helps you see what players went where.
A final note before I start these rankings: keep in mind these are just predictions and nothing here is an assault on you personally! I’m just calling the teams like I see them. And just because you’re in a certain position doesn’t mean your team isn’t good. Everyone here continues to improve at this each year so it the margins get smaller and smaller. Without further ado, my 2021 Breakfast League regular season projections!
12. Waddlin’ Tua Mahomies (Sausage Division)
Team Owner: Aaron Green
2020 Record: 9-7
Projected 2021 Record: 3-11 (1-5 Division)
Team MVP: Saquon Barkley
Aaron invested early in studs at QB and TE, drafting Patrick Mahomes and George Kittle in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. But I’m afraid that cost him a lot in other areas. Chase Edmonds as your RB is not great, considering he plays with the TD vulture that is Kyler Murray. To make things worse though, there’s no depth at RB even after that. McKissic is a 3rd down back and Hyde is a backup to James Robinson - basically a lottery ticket. I’m not impress with Mike Evans and JuJu as WR’s 1 and 2 either - both the Bucs and the Steelers have better options to throw to. The big question is, can Mahomes and Kittle make up the difference? I don’t think so, and that’s why I’m projecting WTM to finish last.
11. Crazy Train (Sausage Division)
Team Owner: Sean Alumbaugh
2020 Record: 8-8
Projected 2021 Record: 3-11 (2-4 Division)
Team MVP: Travis Kelce
This is another team that invested in an early tight end, and just like WTM, I don’t think Sean’s Crazy train got enough out of it - in this case, Kelce in the first round. Yes, Kelce is a stud, but the 5th overall pick was not worth it when you look down the list and see Mixon and Javonte Williams as your RB’s 1 and 2. Barkley, Elliott, Chubb, Ekeler - these are all players Kelce must provide more value than for the pick to be worth it. And I’m not sold on Lamb as a WR1 either - he’s not even the top target on the Cowboys. A bit of hindsight bias here from Thursday night, but it’s clear Amari Cooper is the top target in Dallas (he went 14 picks later). Sean is a good fantasy manager, so he may prove me wrong, especially through the waiver wire, but right now I don’t see this team as a contender.
10. Premarital Fournettecation (Waffle Division)
Team Owner: Daniel Jackson, Jr.
2020 Record: 9-7
Projected 2021 Record: 4-10 (0-6 Division)
Team MVP: Davante Adams
Another year, another time when I dunk on Dan’s draft. I’m sure you’re sensing a theme here, but so much value was lost at RB by taking an early QB and TE. Allen in the 4th I have less of a problem with, but a rookie TE in the 5th round?! I suppose we will see, but historically, rookie TE’s have not worked out great for fantasy purposes, despite how talented Kyle Pitts appears to be. The two studs at WR in Adams and Metcalf will have to carry this team alongside Allen, because Devin Singletary as your RB2 along with only 3 RB’s rostered total is a pretty big yikes from me. Let’s acknowledge though - I said much of the same things about Dan’s draft last year, and he only finished 2nd overall.
9. Cassius Darsh (Waffle Division)
Team Owner: Daren Lincourt
2020 Record: 8-8
Projected 2021 Record: 5-9 (2-4 Division)
Team MVP: Ezekiel Elliott
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this is (thankfully) the last of the teams to talk about that took a QB and a TE before securing their RB2. But of the RB2’s I’ve talked about so far, I like Damien Harris the most, and I think he’ll provide actual RB2 value. There’s also other decent options for depth as well at RB. Tom Brady is the GOAT, and there are 3 studs at WR in Hopkins, Allen, and Lockett - they will need to carry this team. Logan Thomas is talented, but given his injury history, it would make me nervous to have him as my only TE on the whole roster. And was he worth a 6th round pick? No, in my opinion. This team looks decent, but there are several other rosters I still like better.
8. Conner Party (Sausage Division)
Team Owner: Jared Kmiecik
2020 Record: 7-9
Projected 2021 Record: 6-8 (3-3 Division)
Team MVP: Derrick Henry
This is the first roster on this list that I truly think can compete for a title and has a good shot to make the playoffs. To start with, Jared took Henry 3rd overall - a pick I agree with, even over Kamara. Follow that up with CEH, a true WR1 in Godwin, and about a dozen options for a WR2, and you’ve got yourself set to compete. This is the one team that I think truly compensated for taking an early TE (Waller) and QB (Dak). If you can do that, then you’ve got studs at those positions as well as talent around them. The only knock on this team, and the reason I’ve only got it 8th, is the lack of depth at RB. Henry and CEH can NOT get hurt or there will be some serious issues. With a little bit of luck, I can see this being a playoff team.
7. Team Suspension (Bacon Division)
Team Owner: Kaelan Carlson
2020 Record: 8-8
Projected 2021 Record: 7-7 (2-4 Division)
Team MVP: Alvin Kamara
I actually don’t like this roster quite as much as Jared’s, but this prediction is more about faith in the 3x champ in Kaelan and Team Suspension to work things out. We all heard about the lack of an RB on draft night, but with Gus Edwards out, Kaelan had his eyes peeled and was able to grab both potential Ravens RB’s, solidifying that position a bit for him. This is another team that’s loaded at WR - having 4(!) potential WR1’s (and you’re wondering why RB was lacking). Andrews and Herbert are more than solid options at TE and QB as well. Team Suspension has a brutal start to their schedule though - they start with 5 teams ahead of them on this list, and they’re the top 5 teams in my rankings. So if Kaelan can get a few wins and be like 4-1 or even 3-2 in the first 5 games, despite the RB issues? Watch out. I expect Team Suspension to be a solid playoff contender.
6. CoronaVirus Crowns (Sausage Division)
Team Owner: Ethan Maas
2020 Record: 9-7
Projected 2021 Record: 7-7 (6-0 Division, Sausage Div. Champ)
Team MVP: Christian McCaffery
If you’ve been paying attention so far in my rankings, you’ll note that I think the Sausage Division is clearly the weakest of the 3 divisions based on draft. So I think the best of those 4 teams, the Crowns, will make the playoffs. Don’t get me wrong, this is a solid roster, highlighted by McCaffery. AJ Brown and Diontae Johnson are solid options at WR. Kyler Murray is a potential top 5 fantasy QB. TE is probably the weakest link with Eric Ebron being famous for his drops. So why don’t I have this team higher? The depth is pretty meh (but at least it’s there). And I like the teams ahead of this one better. But, like, that’s just my opinion, because if push came to shove, I would take this team for the season just fine.
5. FloridaState SeminalVesicles (Bacon Division)
Team Owner: Alex Annan
2020 Record: 9-7
Projected 2021 Record: 8-6 (2-4 Division)
Team MVP: Tyreek Hill
Alex has a nice, balanced roster to start off the year. Hill and Robinson are great options at WR. Aaron Jones and Robinson are good options at RB. Tannehill and Goedert are great at QB and TE. I have no issues with the starters. The depth is where I find just a bit lacking compared to the teams above that I consider true title contenders. I don’t look at anyone there besides Higgins and feel particularly comfortable starting them. Overall though, a solid starting lineup and one that I feel can make the playoffs should nothing catastrophic happen.
4. Can You Diggs It? (Bacon Division)
Team Owner: Kenny Pancake
2020 Record: 4-12
Projected 2021 Record: 9-5 (3-3 Division)
Team MVP: Austin Ekeler
Our favorite Breakfast League founder is looking to rebound after a particularly bad season last year, and I think he’s got the roster to do it. There’s a really nice stable of RB’s here, highlighted by Ekeler and Gaskin. Diggs is a great WR1 and there are decent WR2 breakout options available. When Russell Wilson is on, he is a top 3 QB in the league (though I still think you could have gotten him later in the draft). As long as Kenny doesn’t make any boneheaded trades (Claypool for some RB that I can’t even remember who it was, but he was dropped immediately), then this is the first of 4 teams that I see as title contenders.
3. That’s Football (Waffle Division)
Team Owner: Al Ohlinger
2020 Record: 11-4
Projected 2021 Record: 10-4 (5-1 Division)
Team MVP: Dalvin Cook
Veterans of reading this article will know that I hate ranking my own team. Of course I love all the guys I drafted, else I wouldn’t have drafted them. I think I’ve earned the benefit of the doubt by now to project myself into the playoffs. The depth I drafted at RB is already paying off with Gus Edwards going down - the margin for error is just less now. There were also a couple of guys in later rounds I was hoping to snag that a team ranked ahead of me grabbed - more on that in a bit. Anyway, I expect to make the playoffs. Anything else is a major disappointment. Kinda like Nebraska and Iowa State LOL.
2. Koo Koo Ka Choo (Bacon Division)
Team Owner: Connor Keaton Gibson
2020 Record: N/A
Projected 2021 Record: 11-3 (5-1 Division)
Team MVP: Najee Harris
When the new guy picked Najee Harris in the first round, I was wondering about his ability to draft. But that was a mistake, Connor said, and proceeded to prove it was by knocking the entire rest of the draft out of the park. 4 great options at running back, a true WR1 in Woods, and lots of options for a breakout RB2. That’s the kind of draft I love. Lamar Jackson will be the entire offense in Baltimore with the RB’s there going down, and Henry/Firkser are great value at TE for how late they went in the draft. Players I would have drafted on this team that went just before me that I was sure no one would take include: Firkser, Ryan, and Mooney. So I obviously love the depth here as well. The only uncertainty that keeps me from picking Koo Koo Ka Choo to win it all is that only mistake of the draft. How will Harris fare as a rookie? It’s an unknown, but if he is as talented as people are saying, I would not be surprised if Connor won it all in his first year in the league.
1. Morning Chubb (Waffle Division)
Team Owner: RJ Dechow
2020 Record: 4-12
Projected 2021 Record: 11-3 (5-1 Division)
Team MVP: Nick Chubb
Lowkey, I think the Browns are going to win the Super Bowl this year. And if they do, Chubb (along with Baker Mayfield) will be the ones to carry them there. Oh wait, look who’s on this team. Dan has finally been dethroned with the best name, and Morning Chubb is my pick not only for the best name, but to win the league. Three great running backs, Amari Cooper (RIP my first round matchup already), T.J. Hockenson (gotta love those Iowa TE’s), and the best QB value in the draft with Stafford and the aforementioned Mayfield make this the team to beat in my eyes. Team KOO has slightly better depth overall, but also plays in a slightly tougher division. So in the end, I’m picking RJ to take home his first ever regular season title.
Here’s a table of me picking every game - I didn’t look at each individual week’s specific matchup (like which players are on bye and such) but just went by which teams I thought were better right now. That’s how I came up with the projected records listed for each team (and the tiebreakers when applicable). Of course I threw in some upsets as well - it wouldn’t be fantasy without them! See if you can spot them and the fun scenarios they created for the playoffs.
Playoff Projections
(Round 1)
(Round 2)
(Rounds 3)
Week 1 Preview:
Game of the Week
Can my pick for the league champion start off strong and hand me my first week 1 defeat in 8 years? RJ is off to a strong start on Thursday night.
I’ve just realized that I ranked Koo Koo Ka Choo number 2 which is just some top tier rhyming. Connor is looking to get off to a strong start in his league debut.
Kenny is 1-9 all time against Kaelan, but I’ve got a feeling he may double his win total here given Kaelan’s RB issues to start the year.
Jared is off to a smoking hot start on Thursday night with Dak and Godwin. Can he hold on against the traditionally strong starting Crowns?
Two teams that last year I ranked lowly but got off to hot starts anyway. Can they repeat that success? Only one can get a win.
Even though I’ve got these two teams as the worst right now - look on the bright side - one of them will start 1-0. That’s how fantasy works, ya know.
It is now 3:48 AM. I am sending this to Kenny to post and going to bed. Good luck and have fun this year!
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