Happy opening day boys! Let’s talk draft strategy.
When I do these post-draft analyses, I always have some key areas I look for that might vary a bit year to year, but mostly stay the same. First and foremost: your team’s starting running backs. Sometimes this is your RB1, RB2, and RB3, but this year, since running back is so thin in my opinion, you’re excused if you only have two good RB’s. However, any additional “Top 24” (that’s you RB1’s and RB2’s) that are on your team are an excellent bonus.
The second thing I look for: did you draft a D/ST or kicker early, or take more than one D/ST or kicker? If you did, that automatically moves you down the list. You’re just missing too much value. I’ll accept a pick that’s 12th round or later, but any earlier than that is just too soon.
Next, I look at your QB/TE slots. Did you take one or both early? (Early defined as first 6 rounds) If you did, how did you make up the value lost at your RB/WR spots? It’s possible to do, but tricky to pull off in practice. A good QB/TE can indeed make the difference in matchups, but in my opinion, it’s easier to find value at these spots later in the draft. That doesn’t mean I didn’t immediately groan seeing that I go against Mahomes in week 1 though!
Finally, I look at WR. This, in my opinion is the easiest position to have 2, 3, or even 4 startable players on your roster at the same time, but it is still worth checking out. If you don’t, you really kind of messed something up in your draft.
Listed below are the results of this year’s draft, sorted by team. Round 1, Pick 1 is at the top left, and you can snake your way down the table, meaning that Round 2, Pick 1 is on the right side of the table and you go right to left in even rounds. This helps you see what players went where.
So what strategy did our top 2 teams from last year employ? Well, Rounds 1-7 for both myself and Kaelan were BOTH the exact same. RB-WR-WR-RB-RB-WR-RB before Kaelan finally deviated by grabbing a TE. I’ll let you study the sheet to come up with some other trends. Let me know in the comments what you find interesting!
A final note before I start these rankings: keep in mind these are just predictions and nothing here is an assault on you personally! I’m just calling the teams like I see them. And just because you’re in a certain position doesn’t mean your team isn’t good. Everyone here continues to improve at this each year so it the margins get smaller and smaller. Without further ado, my 2020 Breakfast League regular season projections!
12. Monica Loves Clinton-Dix
Team Owner: Dan Jackson Jr.
2019 Record: (3-8), 7th Place
Projected 2020 Record: (2-11)
Team MVP: Christian McCaffery
Kicking things off from the bottom this year, we have Dan the man, who clearly invested too much time into his team name rather than his draft. Don’t get me wrong, he’s won best team name every year we’ve been in the league so far and that’s certainly impressive. But let’s take a look at the running backs. McCaffery, a great start. Chris Carson, not bad, not amazing. But where’s the next running back? Oh wait, it’s literally the last pick of the draft - some Darrynton Evans guy (who is apparently the backup for the Titans; I had to Google that). Ouch. Also, a kicker in the 9th isn’t ideal, even if it is Butker. To top it off, the WR’s fail to impress me and while I am high on the Broncos this year, Noah Fant is still a somewhat risky option at TE and there is no backup plan on this team. And don’t even get me started on what I think of the Josh Allen pick (gross) in the 7th round (even worse). I really don’t like any position on this team and that’s why I’m projecting them where they’re at.
11. Big Ben’s Big Balls
Team Owner: Daren Lincourt
2019 Record: N/A
Projected 2020 Record: (2-11)
Team MVP: Julio Jones
Welcome, Daren to the league! We hope you enjoy your time here. It’s gonna be tough with this team though. Just a tip for next time, you’re never going to want to get 2 kickers or D/ST’s. Don’t feel bad though, Kenny drafted 3 defenses one time! This team is especially thin at RB, with the RB2 being Phillip Lindsey, a backup. Sony Michel in the 14th might turn out to be weirdly good value though? I feel like the Patriots are a total Wild Card this year. Not a fan of getting both Dak and Wentz, since you can only start one and they’re both “every week start stud” type QB’s. WR’s are pretty good though. My advice for Daren and everyone in general: keep an eye on the waiver wire, you never know when you can find a guy who can do great things for you. P.S. Please change your team abbreviation to BBBB I really want to type that out on the excel sheets lol.
10. Davante’s Inferno
Team Owner: Jared Kmieck
2019 Record: (3-8), 12th Place
Projected 2020 Record: (4-9)
Team MVP: Travis Kelce
Sorry Jared, but I’m not trading you Davante Adams, so you just might have to change your name. Anyway, you know how I said in the intro it’s pretty hard to mess up wide receiver, which is why it’s the 4th thing I look for? Well, it’s still the 2nd most important position, and somehow this team managed to mess it up. The WR1 and WR2 are from Chicago and Jacksonville, both not exactly known for being high powered throwing offenses. And I’m not yet sold on CEH - ok, maybe stupid of me given it’s KC but he’s still a rookie with zero preseason action. At least this team is deep at RB, surely at least a couple of the 7(!) RB’s will work out. Maybe there’ll even be one to trade to a desperate team who has injuries later? This is definitely an interesting team comp, but I’m just not sure how well it will work out.
9. Cows of Colorado
Team Owner: Alex Annan
2019 Record: (4-7), 5th Place
Projected 2020 Record: (5-8)
Team MVP: Alvin Kamara
Honestly, the consolation bracket is kind of wack if you can get 4-7 last year and end up in 5th Place. Oh well, that has no bearing on this year. This team has a solid core and an outstanding TE/QB combo. The issue here for me is really with the RB’s. The RB2 comes down to whether Swift or Johnson wins the RB battle in Detriot - and you really want one of them to win. The worst case scenario is they split time and you never know which one to start each week because they’re both mediocre. And let’s not forget: they’re still on the Lions. I just feel like there was too much missed backup RB/WR value because of how soon you took your second QB and the D/ST and Kicker. And 3 QB’s was just not necessary with Lamar as your starter. The starting lineup itself, minus the RB2, is still pretty scary, but I’d be worried about depth with this draft.
8. Crazy Train
Team Owner: Sean Alumbaugh
2019 Record: (7-4), 3rd Place
Projected 2020 Record: (6-7)
Team MVP: Michael Thomas
This is the first team on this list I would willingly take off of someone else’s hands as use it as my team this year. This is a solid team - there’s no egregious errors here. This team, consequently, will battle for a playoff spot in our new 6 team format. In fact, there’s not a ton of difference in teams 5-8 in my opinion. So why isn’t Crazy Train higher on the list? I just don’t see any really special players that make the team pop, and maybe the RB’s are just a tad weaker than the teams ahead? Jonathan Taylor is a great RB but I’d be extremely nervous having a rookie RB start right out of the gate with no preseason games. This was also the only team that took a WR in the first round, and while Thomas is great, I definitely would not have passed on two studs at RB at this position in the draft given how thin the position is. This team can definitely make it work - they’re not off the rails just yet!
7. Go Bark Yourself
Team Owner: RJ Dechow
2019 Record: (8-3) 4th Place
Projected 2020 Record: (6-7)
Team MVP: Saquon Barkley
Yep so immediately after the draft I went to look at my first matchup and went, “Shit, I’m facing Pat Mahomes at home on Thursday night to open the season.” That’s the upside to taking him. The downside is yet another rookie at an RB spot, and questionable depth at the RB position. So many RB’s are essentially coin flips as to whether they work out or not, and so many games this year could ride on whether you called it correctly. Gibson is talented, but how good will Washington be this year? No egregious errors here, and this team will challenge for the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes will win some weeks for you. Again, this team could have landed anywhere from spots 5-8 on this list and will be right in the mix.
6. Sherlock Jones
Team Owner: Kenny Pancake
2019 Record: (5-6), 8th Place
Projected 2020 Record: (7-6)
Team MVP: Joe Mixon
This is exactly what I wanted to see for someone drafting later in the first round: two RB’s picked in the first two rounds. There was a large dropoff after the top 14 RB’s so if you could get 2 of them, that’s a big deal. Really, my only problem with the team is at QB, and Daniel Jones flying solo is not great. I like McLaurin and Woods as WR1 and WR2 even though they weren’t picked until rounds 3 and 4. And history tells us if things don’t work out, Kenny is willing to make some big moves to rectify the situation, which is why I think even though there will be ups and downs throughout the season, this team will make the playoffs as a wild card.
5. Two Girls One Kupp
Team Owner: Brandon Gaede
2019 Record: (7-4), 6th Place
Projected 2020 Record: (8-5)
Team MVP: Josh Jacobs
I feel like I could say almost exactly the same thing about Brandon’s team as I just did about Kenny’s team. 2 RB’s the first two rounds, two good if not great WR’s, and serviceable TE’s. The only difference is that I like Aaron Rodgers as a QB more than Daniel Jones, and hey, that’s enough to get the 1 spot bump. In fact, the first 8(!) rounds went the exact same for Brandon and Kenny: RB-RB-WR-WR-RB-WR-TE-RB. Brandon is a good enough owner and this is a solid enough team that I think they will earn the other wild card spot in this year’s expanded playoffs.
4. Wave To The Kids!
Team Owner: Al Ohlinger
2019 Record: (8-3), 2nd Place
Projected 2020 Record: 9-4
Team MVP: Ezekiel Elliott
Oh boy, time to rank my own team! Ya’ll know I never know how to feel about my team since I usually like my guys (that’s why I picked them!) but I’m of course biased towards them because I want them to do well. But for what it’s worth, each time I’ve projected myself to make the playoffs I’ve actually made it, and the one time I didn’t, I missed them. So putting myself at 4th doesn’t seem too bad. I have another rookie RB, but the difference for me is that he’s my RB3 so I have the option to flex a WR where many of the rookie RB’s I critiqued before were RB2’s and therefore forced to start. Other than that, I picked up some solid starters and took some fliers in the later rounds - a strategy that worked out last year, but let’s see if I can do it again. I do like this team enough compared to the others in the Waffle division to pick it to win.
3. CoronaVirus Crowns
Team Owner: Ethan Maas
2019 Record: (4-7), 10th Place
Projected 2020 Record: 9-4
Team MVP: Derrick Henry
Ethan always has boom or bust teams, and a lot of that comes down to the draft, as he isn’t always the most active player, even forgetting to sub out players on byes occasionally. But I really think he hit it with the draft this year. I think all 3 of the top RB’s are solid, especially if the Bears OL can get it together - Montgomery is a talented back. I’m gonna miss having Russell Wilson on my team, and if he can replicate what he did last year, that’s an every week starter at QB. I think Hopkins has the potential to be the overall number 1 WR this year at Arizona. They really love to throw it around the yard and Hopkins will be the best WR head coach Kliff Kingsburry has ever had. And, if AJ Green can stay healthy - look out because it wasn’t that long ago he was a first round fantasy pick as well. This is the clear best team in the Sausage division in my eyes, and should be able to win it.
2. Team Suspension
Team Owner: Kaelan Carlson
2019 Record: (11-0), 1st Place
Projected 2020 Record: 10-3
Team MVP: Dalvin Cook
Look, between you and me, I could have easily picked this team to win the regular season championship. But I’m pretty sure Kaelan’s ego already has its own gravitational orbit, so why contribute to that more? Ok but seriously, this team is good and certainly should compete for another championship. I joked during the draft that Kaelan was just try recreate last year’s team when he took Godwin in round 2, but then again, who wouldn’t want to recreate last year’s undefeated run? There’s 3 excellent running backs (if the Jets can get their shit together, which, yaknow). There’s 3 great WR’s, and a great QB in Brees, even if he is old AF. And I know Gronk is a meme pick but secretly he could also have a great year? Who knows. All I know is that Team Suspension is stacked again, Kaelan is good at fantasy, and water is wet. Look for this team to walk through the Bacon division and glide into the playoffs again.
1. Elementary, My Dear Watson
Team Owner: Aaron Green
2019 Record: (3-8), 11th Place
Projected 2020 Record: (10-3), Regular Season Champion
Team MVP: Nick Chubb
Drunk man wins draft. Drunk man wins draft? Drunk man wins draft! Is this the really the best lineup? I’m not entirely sure, and I think it’s close at the top. But then again, the exact best lineup doesn’t always win, and these are projections, not power rankings. I think Aaron is finally due after not making the playoff since 2015. I said before that taking a QB and TE early can be an advantage, depending on how you make up for it with your RB’s and WR’s later. And I think Devin Singletary and Marvin Jones Jr. do just enough to cover that. Ok, I saw that he took a D/ST in the 9th round. But that’s just Aaron being Aaron, and you never know which D/ST is going to have multiple 20+ point games in a year. It seems like there’s always one, and that D/ST will win you some games. Regardless, I think this team has enough firepower to not only win the Eggs division, but also give Aaron his first ever regular season championship. My expectations are high. No pressure.
Playoff projections (for fun)
I don’t normally do these but just for fun this year (and with no other analysis), here are my playoff projections:
(Round 1)
(Round 2)
(Round 3)
I know, I know! I picked myself to win and avenge last year’s loss - I did say these were just for fun. I only really care about the accuracy of the regular season finish.
Here’s a table of me picking every game - I didn’t look at each individual week’s specific matchup (like which players are on bye and such) but just went by which teams I thought were better right now. That’s how I came up with the projected records listed for each team (and the tiebreakers when applicable). Of course I threw in some upsets as well - it wouldn’t be fantasy without them! See if you can spot them and the fun scenarios they created for the playoffs.
Finally, let’s end off with some Week One predictions - I won’t stick to the above predictions all year when I do these - that would be silly since teams change. But I will follow them for this week since that’s all I know about the teams right now.
Week 1 predictions:
If my projections are accurate, this could be the best opportunity for both of these teams to grab a win all year. It’s the rookie Daren’s debut against his friend Dan. Who will come out on top in the clash of my two favorite (if a bit inappropriate) team names?
If my projections are good, then this matchup should be elementary, my dear Watson. Aaron, please don’t immediately make me look stupid.
A Breakfast League classic with a lopsided history. I don’t see that changing this week.
This one is Ethan’s on paper, but teams that lack depth are at their best for week 1, so don’t be surprised if Alex keeps this one close.
This one IMO is a true tossup. It will for sure have major implications on the division though. This matchup is a prime example of why we made rivalry weeks the first 3 and last 3 week of the year. Who’s the best at the beginning and at the end?
This is another key divisional game that will certainly have playoff implications at the end of the year if these teams are as solid as I think they are. Another tossup game.
Finally, good luck to everyone this year, and remember: have fun!
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