You wanna know something cool? In 11 months, the Breakfast League will be kicking off its TENTH YEAR.
Ten years. That's insane.
Think about what life was like ten years ago:
Barack Obama was running for a second term as POTUS
We all survived the end of the world
Michael Phelps became the most decorated Olympian of all time
The Avengers was released
Aaron was under the tutelage of the finest marching band section leader in all the land... if 'fine' means a raccoon on fire and running around a dry forest, all while screeching
We're not quite close to the ten-year anniversary (the actual 10-year anniversary date will be in 2024), but it's still remarkable that five of the original ten are still around. Here's to hoping we'll all be around for another forty (or until NFL football is replaced with flag football).
NOW FOR THE RANKINGS: Keep in mind when I say PA = 1st for example, that means your PA is most favorable. 1st in PA means your opponents melt in fear of facing you on the gridiron and they give their worst performances. 12th in PA means that they were up 20 points on you before Thursday Night Football even kicked off, and you have been the unluckiest owner to this point.
Finally, I focus this early-season PR on future potential. Being 2-1 doesn't really matter that much if those are the only two wins you'll get this year.
12. San Diego State Fighting Araizas: 1-2, 38% playoff chance
PF = 5th / PA = 4th
Anybody got any of those Running Backs?????? Really, this could describe everyone here in the League - but especially for Dan's crew, who has Kareem Hunt (second fiddle to Nick Chubb), Melvin Gordon (second fiddle to Javonte Williams) and the injured David Montgomery (second fiddle to Khalil Herbert and the worst organization in football). He may have taken the term 'Zero-RB strategy' a little too seriously.
11. Make Fantasy Great Again: 1-2, 31% playoff chance
PF = 11th / PA = 5th
When Ethan took Tom Brady in the fourth round, I thought to myself, "Okay, it's not what I would have done, but every time we doubt Tom Brady he comes through." Now, I'm thinking I should trust my instincts more. The move may still pay off - and yet, I can't help but wonder what this team could be had Tom Brady been selected a few rounds later (where he most certainly would have still been available) and had Ethan had any of these pros on his team: Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Darren Waller.
Still, I should give props to selections of Christian Kirk and Cordarrelle Patterson. But I don't see a lot of upside to this crew for the long haul.
10. Crazy Train: 1-2, 32% playoff chance
PF = 6th / PA = 11th
Who exactly is Craig Reynolds? Whoever he is, he is RB2 for Sean Alumbaugh this week, an owner who is slogging through another season-following-a-title-game-loss.
The sad part about this roster is, for the most part, I could have drafted that same roster. D'Andre Swift was a smart grab, Darnell Mooney was supposed to get the most targets in Chicago, Kyle Pitts was billed as 'a WR you get to play in the TE roster spot...' and yet, injuries and disappointment abound. Seems like the definition for fantasy football.
9. Koo Koo Ka Choo: 1-2, 47% playoff chance
PF = 3rd / PA = 9th
It makes me so happy to have beaten you this September! I have avenged the twentieth-of-a-point loss. Maybe I've put you too low in this ranking just for ecstasy's sake, I'm sure I'll regret it later.
When I look at his rosters' position rankings, I don't see a bad team. But there is zero depth here unless Michael Carter or Rashaad Penny establish themselves in a hurry. Hopefully, the opposition scoring will mellow out a bit while Connor maintains a high-flying offense.
8. I'm Really Feeling It!: 1-2, 37% playoff chance
PF = 9th / PA = 6th
Are you feeling it now, Mr. Krabs?!?!? Jokes aside, I actually feel okay about this team recovering. As Wilson settles in at Denver, Courtland Sutton will get more TD opportunities. JK Dobbins is getting up and running again coming off a big injury last season. It's been an ugly start (Al has said so himself), but I'm not down and out about this team.
7. #3 Baker's Dozen: 2-1, 58% playoff chance
PF = 12th / PA = 8th
With the lowest scoring team so far this year, you're luckier than a 26-year-old dating Leonardo DiCaprio to have two wins. But unless things change fast, you'll be the one hanging off the door while Jack hums 'Josephine.' There's little depth here past Tyreek Hill (although, the Huskers are jealous of his Special Teams unit). Still, there's some hope for Derrick Henry and Rhamondre Stevenson to improve - I mean come on, its Derrick Henry.
6. Kittle Bit of CHAOS: 1-2, 32% playoff chance
PF = 10th / PA = 10th
It's odd is that a team with Nick Chubb, Justin Herbert, George Kittle, Jerry Jeudy and Keenan Allen is doing so poorly. Expect this team to bounce back soon - especially after DeAndre Hopkins re-enters the gridiron. I like this team a lot more than its current stats suggest. Just wait, he will win half of his remaining games... as long as he doesn't forget to change out his injured or BYE week players!!!
5. #5 Team Suspension: 2-1, 59% playoff chance
PF = 8th / PA = 7th
Tee Higgins. What a grab. After all the noise about Jamar Chase, everyone forgot that Tee Higgins nearly matched his fantasy scoring last year - and he may outpace his teammate this year. But Kaelan's weakness is at QB, where Derek Carr is just mediocre with Davante Adams. Look to Kaelan to pick up Deshaun Watson around week 10 for a late-season push if Wentz and Carr don't show improvement.
4. *TeamName Redacted*: 1-2, 44% playoff chance
PF = 4th / PA = 12th
Out of all the 1-2 teams, Alex is the one that I find most likely to succeed in the remainder of the regular season. Josh Allen is as dependable as a Rolex concerning fantasy points, Ekeler is Ekeler (although a little more time is needed for Herbert to recover from his rib injuries), and the Sun God is becoming a fully-grown WR (but currently injured). With a little bit of TLC, and patience - combined with a Points Against regression to the mean - Alex has a chance to get back into the mix.
3. #2 It Just Means Moore: 2-1, 68% playoff chance
PF = 2nd / PA = 3rd
My namesakes are terrible busts every time. Remember Sherlock 'Jones' for Daniel Jones? Terrible. 'Memphis Mayfield'? Total crap. And now, DJ Moore looks like a toddler in a supermarket searching for his mommy. Historically, a wasted 2nd-round pick is difficult to come back from.
Still, it could be worse. I do have four top-five players (five top-ten players). I did beat Kaelan Carlson and Connor Gibson (remember remember the loss in September, Connor!!!), I do lead my division going into non-con competition, and it looks like Mitch Trubisky finally discovered that there's this cool WR on the Steelers named George Pickens. Maybe it'll be all right.
2. #4 Wilson's Cougar Hunters: 2-1, 61% playoff chance
PF = 7th / PA = 1st
So far, RJ has been lucky with low-scoring opposition. But here's why I think RJ can push through even if his competition toughens up:
Pittman has the opportunity of a top-12 WR, even if his positional ranking doesn't show it due to one week of injury;
Wilson should regress to the mean - I mean, he can't be this bad all year, right?!?!?
Remember, seven of this guy's players are in the top ten so far at their respective positions. If Khalil Herbert can hold up (and that's a big 'if' for anyone on the Bears right now), he may just have an outside shot.
And the PR Power Team of Week Three...
1. #1 Conner Party: 3-0, 93% playoff chance
PF = 1st / PA = 2nd
So I'm a little bit worried about his RB depth - but hey, who isn't? Until the man actually loses a game, and maybe doesn't lead the League in Points For by nearly a hundred points after just three weeks, I have to put this man at the top. For the second year in a row, Jared has come out of the gate like a greyhound running for that hot dog you just pulled out of the fridge. Which has to be pretty enjoyable for him, since the first few years were more like a Chihuahua running away from a cat.
Seriously - four of his players are top five in their positions (two are the best - Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews). The roster is so airtight, he hasn't had to make any waiver claims yet this year. With that breakout power and potential for boom every week, it's gonna be hard to get a win against a - 'hungry' - Conner Party.
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