Welcome to the Breakfast League’s 10th season! Whether you’re in your first season in the league, your 10th, or anywhere in between, there’s one goal for the year: beat Kenny. Wait, I mean: take home the championship.
I’m trying something different for the initial power rankings this year. Please take a look at the graphic below, which shows the drafted players in the order they were picked, by what team, and by position. I’m comparing this order to my own personal* player rankings, 1-228, and giving each draft a score based on where the player was ranked there. Kickers, D/ST’s, and anyone not on my list got a score of 228. Otherwise, the rank of the player was the score, so the lower the score, the better.
This scoring system seems to favor teams who do a good job selecting their depth, as that’s where most of the value can come from. Players ranked in the 100-150 range are available in the later rounds, it’s just identifying which ones are the gems amongst the rough.
Is my list that I was using perfect? Of course not. Is this the order I would have put these teams in just based on my opinion, looking at them? Probably not, but it was an interesting exercise to see how they turned out.
*The rankings I used that I got from some guy on the internet
12. It Hurts My Dear Watson
Team Owner: Jason McMichael
2023 Record: N/A
2024 Draft Score: 1977
It’s a harsh introduction for the League’s newest member. Consider this your initiation, rookie! When I was adding these scores up, I had a guess who might be last, but this wasn’t my expectation. Jason’s new to the Breakfast League, but not new to fantasy football, so I didn’t think he would be last here. He got good value by grabbing Hurts in the 4th round, but only having 2.5 real running backs seems to be bragging this team down. I would be scared only having 3 rostered in total. Also, Ridley and Gabe Davis seemed to be poor value as well - WR’s past their prime. Finally, there’s no reason to take a defense that early. While it doesn’t impact the score, it does make it harder to get value in your later picks. Yes, there is usually one defense a year that stands out, but it’s essentially random and difficult to discern which one it’s going to be year to year. So while I wouldn’t have pick this team last, I don’t disagree with it being towards the bottom.
11. A Green Bean
Team Owner: Alex Annan
2023 Record: 12-4 (Reg. Season and Playoff Champion)
2024 Draft score: 1894
It’s another shocker right off the bat! Last year’s champion, second to last?! Maybe this means my ranking system is just shit, but only time will tell that. For now, let’s take a look at Alex’s roster. The first thing that jumps out at me is getting the #2 player in the rankings, Bijan Robinson. But after that, Alex’s RB’s fall off hard. The next two options are in committees where they may or may not come out on top - Alex will need a bit of luck there. Kittle is a very boom or bust TE. If Shanahan’s game script says block - then too bad for Kittle this week. I’m curious to see if Stroud will continue to improve on his impressive rookie year. The Nico Collins/Stroud stack could determine a lot for the Beans this year. Where Alex lost a lot of value according to the rankings was at the end with his depth, having both Jordan Mason and Taysom HIll unranked. We will see if that kind of thing actually matters for the team or not - Puka Nacua went undrafted in the BL last year, so there’s value to be had in these final picks.
10. Iowa City Mo
Team Owner: Marie Ohlinger
2023 Record: 10-7 (5th Place)
2024 draft score: 1849
Marie comes into her second season in the league after a playoff finish in her debut. However, will this low draft ranking lead to missing the playoffs this year? I’m not so sure yet. She took a big hit in the score from drafting Rasheed Rice, who we’ve learned will not be suspended this year, but was ranked low because of that possibility. Also, Bucky Irving was unranked in the score list, and there’s the possibility he could move up the depth chart. Conversely, the rankings suggest she could have gotten good value in Lamar Jackson and Adonai Mitchell, a rookie for the Colts. I don’t think this team is quite as bad as the 10th place would suggest, but I predict it will be a fight to get into the playoffs.
9. Mahomes Alone
Team Owner: Aaron Green
2023 Record: 8-9 (2nd Place)
2024 draft score: 1832
This was actually the biggest shocker for me - Aaron’s pick of Patrick Mahomes 2nd overall had me sure that the calculations would put him in last. But I guess this may prove that it’s not just about how you start your draft, it’s how you finish it. Kelce in the 3rd was not just homerism - it was good value, especially stacked with Mahomes. That combination could win Aaron 2-3 matchups this year alone. But for my preference, this fantasy team is way too reliant on the Chiefs. If they have a bad game, Aaron’s team will suffer hard. The rankings suggest that Mike Williams and Samaje Perine were not high value picks either. Aaron broke his 8 year playoff drought last season, but nothing about this team suggests to me that he’ll avoid starting a new one. Were I to rank it on preference, this team would be last.
8. do ya feel the Breece
Team Owner: Ethan Maas
2023 Record: 10-6 (4th place)
2024 draft score: 1775
A founding member, Ethan returns for his 10th season in the league, and it’s been very boom or bust. He’s finished as high as second, but in recent years has finished near the bottom of the league. Therefore, it was a nice bounceback to make the playoffs last year. This team’s average draft score suggests that the team will contend for the playoffs, and I agree with that assessment. Breece Hall is one of the few bellcow backs still in the league, and was worth that pick. Jake Ferguson was another pick with great value for his position. Other than that, not much stands out to me about this team right now - but that’s OK. We can’t all be great or awful every year, and some teams will be average. That’s something to think about while sitting on your porch swing in the cool Fall breeze.
7. Mr. Rodgers’ Naber-hood
Team Owner: Kenny Pancake
2023 Record: 8-9 (8th Place)
2024 draft score: 1756
Team names with player name puns are hit and miss from me, but this one’s a hit - my favorite this year! Very clever. The guy who brought us all together, Kenny Pancake - take a bow. Not many people can start something and see it through for 10 whole years, especially something they started in high school. It’s an anniversary for the league to be proud of! Kenny’s draft score suggests an average draft, and I agree here as well. I’m surprised that Jonathon Taylor fell as far as he did, but it’s to Kenny’s benefit. I joked about Naber having to have someone pass him the ball, but Danny Dimes does have the occasional big fantasy game, so there’s not nothing there. There’s just nothing that stands out in Kenny’s depth though that makes me think this is a championship year. Playoffs? Sure, I trust Kenny to make enough offseason moves to get there. I don’t see this team winning it all though.
6. The Brockness Monster
Team Owner: Daren Lincourt
2023 Record: 8-9 (9th place)
2024 draft score: 1652
There’s quite the big jump in draft score here, nearly 100 points better than 7th place. Will this actually prelude anything meaningful? Doubtful, but we’ll see. Daren was the only person in the league not to take a RB in the first two rounds, but covered for that nicely in the following rounds. Two stud WR’s can definitely lead you to a championship, as I can attest to. Neither Purdy nor Herbert is a slam dunk at QB, so picking the right one in the right matchups will be key. Both Walker and Kincaid were good value, as well as the sneaky homer pick right at the end. I can definitely see this team making the playoffs.
5. C’mon Son!
Owner: Connor Gibson
2023 Record: 7-10 (11th Place)
2024 draft score: 1623
After making the championship in his debut in the Breakfast League, Connor was surely disappointed to miss the playoffs last year and finish second to last. Can he turn it around this year? The draft score certainly suggests that he can, highlighted by his strong RB core. Williams is another rare bellcow back, and with both Miami backs, he’s sure to have grabbed the correct one. It will just be tricky to predict which one it will be. Finally, Dobbins is great value so late, and I think he’ll be the guy with the Chargers, reunited with his old OC. There weren’t even any picks with particularly bad value here. The only concern for me is at QB where Richardson and Lawrence aren’t lighting the room on fire. I’m not sold on Richardson who has barely started any games at QB in his entire career. That situation holds me back from declaring this team a championship contender, but I do think they’ll be back in the playoffs.
4. Crazy Train
Owner: Sean Alumbaugh
2023 Record: 10-7 (3rd Place)
2024 draft score: 1612
Sean has been close to a title several times, always seeming to finish well in the league. He has 3 runner-ups and was close again with a third place last year. He hasn’t ever been able to finish it off, though. I really like this lineup, though. Hill, Puka, and Flowers are a strong WR core and LaPorta is a stud at TE. If Sean can get one of his late round RB’s to become a reliable RB2, watch out for this team to compete for a championship. The scores suggest that Shaheed and Hubbard were great value at their draft positions, making up for early D/ST pick. Besides the RB2, my other concern is if Dak can be consistent enough at QB alongside an occasional Baker start when the matchup calls for it. Those two things would make me hesitate just a bit to call this team a favorite, but they certainly look like a contender.
3. Hock Tua
Team Owner: RJ Dechow
2023 Record: 8-9 (7th place)
2024 draft score: 1609
RJ saw the opportunity and took it for a relevant meme team name. Too bad it’s such a shit meme, because otherwise it’s a perfect name. As far as the team goes, I did not like the start to this draft - St. Brown should not have been the first WR to go and White was not great value either. But after that, things started picking up. Josh Allen has been the #1 fantasy QB, London fell forever to this team, and McBride was great value as well. And this team’s namesakes, Hockenson and Tua are both great players that should provide an impact when healthy as well. Surprisingly, RJ has never made a championship in his 9 years in the Breakfast league with his highest finish being third, but I do expect him to compete for one this year with his depth. The question is, can his studs break out enough times to have more than a consistent floor?
2. Team Suspension
Team Owner: Kaelan Carlson
2023 Record: 8-9 (6th Place)
2024 draft score: 1557
The 3-time champ is back, and watch out Breakfast League, because number four could be on the way. That is, if Ja’Marr Chase gets his head out of his ass. Because if he does, the Burrow/Chase stack will be deadly. Paceco and Stevenson are great value RB’s for the positions taken, and Moss should be just enough depth at the position with the strength of the WR’s. It just seems like Kaelan got value with every pick, and it shows with him having the highest draft score of someone not using the list itself. The only potential weakness is TE, with Schultz not being top end and the only one rostered. But other than that, I don’t want to face this team any time soon.
1. Counterattack!
Team Owner: Al Ohlinger
2023 Record :5-12 (12th Place)
2024 draft score: 1315
I’ve broken my PR tradition by ranking myself first - it’s something that only sets me up for mockery. But of course I feel good about my draft every year, otherwise I wouldn’t have picked those players. Using this “objective” ranking method, however, essentially requires me to place myself first since I got to “cheat” and use my own draft rankings. This resulted in grading myself over 200 points better than the next team, which is absurd. I can however take a step back and compare myself to the other teams, and I do think I have the strongest RB’s of any team. Drafting CMC with the first pick will do that. I think Kyler Murray was great value all the way in the 8th round as well. It wasn’t perfect though, as I would have like to have Najee Harris and Ferguson and they were sniped shortly before my picks. Time will tell if I can rebound from by far my worst finish and 3 year playoff drought. But my confidence shows in my team name - it’s a song from Xenoblade 2 that plays when the protagonist is at their lowest point, but is about to pull some Anime bullshit to turn things around. Hopefully I can manifest that energy.
Week 1 Preview
Game of the week
A Breakfast League classic, who doesn’t love Kenny vs Kaelan? Considering their head to head records over the years, Kenny’s probably the answer there.
We’ll be rooting together for a Hawkeye win on Saturday over the Cyclowns but against each other the following day. It looks like it’ll be a tight one.
It’s another one that’s tough to predict given no games have been played yet and we don’t know the true strength of the teams so far. But give me RJ in a close one.
I get to cheat since I’m finishing these on a Friday and the Chiefs already played. But that doesn’t change the result, I still would’ve taken Sean to win this one in a blowout.
I feel like Connor has the advantage in most positions here, except QB, despite what ESPN is predicting. Give me Connor in a close one over Alex.
I’m feeling nervous about ranking Jason this low already, because I know he will not hesitate to shit-talk me given the opportunity. But I’m not willing to throw out my new ranking method so soon either. I’ll take Daren in this matchup.
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