The last week of the season sees 6 teams fighting for playoff berths with 4 of them going head-to-head and none of the games will be decided until Monday Night Football!!! Suffice to say, it will be a very exciting end to a fantastic regular season.
With these predictions, I used a number of different sources to compile the percentages. If anyone has any questions about how I got the numbers, I will attach an excel document to shows the week-by-week predictions using my current method. Anything else that I have posted previously will most likely be different. Using the formula, I would have gone 46-14 in games played so far this year, a 76.7% winning percentage. Compare that to ESPN who went 42-18 for a 70% winning percentage. Am I saying that I am better than ESPN? Eh who cares?
Just to give some insight into how accurate the process is, teams that had the below-mentioned winning probability are listed below. The higher it is, the better chance you have of winning for that week.
65%+: 6-0 100% winning percentage
60%-65%: 8-1 88.9% winning percentage
55%-60%: 10-3 76.9% winning percentage
50%-55%: 22-10 68.8% winning percentage
On with the predictions.
Least Exciting Game of the Week: The Rampaging Koala Bears (2-8) vs. Chronic Masterdeflater (1-9)
For both of these teams, nothing has gone right this season. And they don’t even get the opportunity to ruin a playoff-caliber team’s hopes. ☹ However, Chronic should get the win in this one and get some much needed momentum heading in the offseason.
Chronic chances: 53.4%
Koala chances: 46.6%
Attack of the Mahomes (4-6) vs. Just Call Burton (4-6)
Another game that features two teams unable to ruin anyone else’s hopes and dreams. Mahomes has had the highest scoring offense in the league this year but unfortunately, he has been unable to make it count when he needs to. Burton has had a solid team also but he too is just playing for his pride.
Mahomes’ chances: 65.6%
Burton’s chances: 34.4%
I’m Bringing Rexy Back (7-3) vs. Donald Trumps Hair (1-9)
One is fighting for a playoff spot, the other hasn’t changed his lineup since week 4... While this is the first game that has playoff implications, it shouldn’t be competitive. It would take an Appalachian St. vs. Michigan upset to happen here. While that would be funny as hell if it happened and I’m sure the rest of the league would celebrate the demise of Pancake, don’t bet on it.
Rexy’s chances: 77.7%
Trump’s chances: 22.3%
Team Suspension (3-7) vs. Children of Thanos (7-3)
A playoff impacting game that has a little better chance of actually being entertaining involves everyone’s favorite purple guy versus a former two-time league champion that has just had an off year. Kealen can still have a memorable season though if he knocks off the team that was the hottest to begin the season and then had the largest upset so far in Breakfast League history last week against Mahomes, according to the probabilities. If Suspension’s lineup changes work this week, a surprise upset could happen here.
Thanos’ chances: 61.2%
Suspension’s chances: 38.8%
Avant Gardeyns (8-2) vs. Frost Advisory (8-2)
The second best matchup this week pits two of the top teams against each other. The only reason that this is not the highest is that Avant has secured a playoff spot and Frost has a 87.5% chance of doing so, meaning the stakes are not too high for either team. Avant can (and should) probably rest his entire team in this game so he can prepare for the playoffs. I think that would be a wise and prudent decision. 😊
Frost’s chances: 63.0%
Avant’s chances: 37.0%
Game of the Week: Party Like It’s 1999 (8-2) vs. Crazy Train (7-3)
The winner most likely goes to the playoffs, the loser most likely doesn’t. The stakes are high for both of these teams who desperately need a win to either clinch (1999) or have a decent shot (Crazy). The prediction is insanely close between them with Crazy having the slight edge but honestly it could go either way. Think of this game as a college football championship game where the winner gets into the football playoff and the loser being relegated to the Rose Bowl. A decent season but the promise for so much more left unfilled.
Crazy’s chances: 50.4%
1999 chances: 49.6%
Week by Week Biggest Upsets
Week 1: Koala over Gardeyns – 51.2%
Week 2: Mahomes over Suspension – 55.5%
Week 3: Frost over Burton – 52.3%
Week 4: No upsets!
Week 5: Thanos over Burton – 54.1%
Week 6: Crazy over Mahomes – 55.0%
Week 7: Gardeyns over Burton – 56.2%
Week 8: 1999 over Frost – 54.1%
Week 9: No upsets!
Week 10: Thanos over Mahomes – 60.0%
There you have it folks, the Week 11 Game Predictions. Let me know if you have any questions about the process and if you would like to see anything added in the future!
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