It's the first article of the 2019 season!!! Hooray for premature fantasy football!!!
Welcome to the sixth year of the Breakfast League! Just like clockwork, we are all back to compete for the greatest of all trophies - no trophy at all. But, cash! $$$$$$$$
Five weeks out from The Holiest of Days, DRAFT DAY, our randomized draft order has been decided by 1d12 rolls! While there were many technical difficulties (story of my life), the order has been released so that mock drafting may begin.
Now... what would one of these posts be if I didn't do a power ranking and some in-depth statistics analysis? Yes, it's the first power ranking of the season - and for this completely meaningless assortment, I will be ranking the twelve members in order of draft pick fortune. You see, you can control who you pick... but you can't control where you pick. Let's analyze how the fantasy gods have treated us all... but first, some facts!
Fact #1: The first five teams to draft have an 80% chance to win the league. Yes, four of the five Breakfast League championship teams have come from the top five teams selecting in the draft. Champion teams have drafted 3rd (of 10), 5th (of 10), 11th (of 12), 2nd (of 12) and 5th (of 12). One notable factoid in all of this is that no player has ever drafted in the 1 slot and gone on to win the title. However, the regular season champion has drafted anywhere from 2nd to 8th. The one player who drafted next to last and won the league? Moi!
Fact #2: 2, 8, 6, 12, 3. I mentioned that no team has taken the first draft pick and the Breakfast League title. Those are the places in the final standings that the person with the first draft pick did take home. Obviously, there is a large range of possibilities there (it is only fair to note that the outlier - 12th - was partially due to a season-ending injury to that first draft pick in week one).
Fact #3: Four is the loneliest number - as in, the draft slot that has never finished better in the final standings than 5th (twice), and more than half the time is seen outside the top ten... also known as the bottom two.
In fact, I did a quick graph to show average finishing position by draft pick, compiling all six years of drafting data...
How steep that hill is between the 5th pick and the 4th. Let's see, who picks in the dreaded 4th spot this year... *checks notes* *gulp*
To calculate just how badly the fantasy gods have spited you all by which draft position they put you in, I created the "Godly Spite Value" - aptly named, this calculation combined your random draft selection for all league seasons along with each draft spot's own inherent odds of winning or losing. Remember: the lower the better.
Anyways, all that in mind along with their past, here is the draft-luck power ranking, from unluckiest to leprechaun!
12) Jared Kmiecik (Avg. Draft Pos. 4.33, Godly Spite Value 6.93, #1 pick in 2017 injured Wk. 1)
Despite not having the highest stat representing Godly Spite, Jared definitely qualifies as the unluckiest anything in the Breakfast League. Gifted with the first pick of the 2017 draft in his rookie year, Jared made the entirely logical choice of David Johnson - who then injured himself in Week 1 of the season. He sat on the sidelines for the rest of the year.
Beyond that one golden opportunity, Jared has been forced to draft in the 3 slot (boasting for its holders an average finish of only 6.2) and the 9 slot (the second worst slot by the numbers).
11) Eli Thompson (ADP 6.8, GSV 7.04, drafted in the dreaded 4 spot twice)
Did the unlucky draft spot make the owner, or did the owner make the unlucky draft spot? That is the question for Eli Thompson, who is solely responsible for a third of all owners drafting fourth in the League. He also drafted in the 9 spot once, giving him one of the two worst drafting spots 60% of the time he spent drafting.
10) RJ Dechow (ADP 6.66, GSV 6.64, has drafted first and next to last)
RJ has done considerably well in the Breakfast League considering his unlucky draft spot selections by the gods. This year will be the first time he will open the draft with the first pick, let alone draft earlier than eighth.
9) Ethan Maas (ADP 6.83, GSV 6.44, drafted in third-worst slot two times)
It is never fun to draft eleventh. Unless you're me, and it's followed by a title. Aaahhhh... anyways, where were we? Oh, right, the fact that Ethan will draft in the 11 slot for the second year in a row. Keep your spirits up though Ethan - you got Kareem last time!
8) Daniel Jackson (ADP 8.33, GSV 5.87, drafts in top half of the order first time this year)
Daniel has had to wait and wait in past years, but now he picks third. We will see if he can outdo the predicted sixth place finish that awaits the average third-slot drafter.
7) Kenneth Pancake (ADP 6.5, GSV 6.39, drafts in the dreaded 4 slot for the first time)
*gulp*
6) Sean Alumbaugh (ADP 5, GSV 6.37, Drafted first in first two Breakfast League drafts)
It's pretty lucky to open the draft back-to-back on a random selection, but Sean did it - and picked Eddie Lacy both times. Beyond that, he has battled the 4 slot one time.
5) Al Ohlinger (ADP 7.33, GSV 5.67, drafting in the 8 slot)
Al's been a little bit of everywhere - he has drafted second and twelfth. This year, he hits a sweet middle. The two slot is the second-luckiest draw - the eight slot is his unluckiest spotting, predicting for him a finish of sixth.
4) Alex Annan (ADP 4.33, GSV 5.93, once almost made playoffs with auto-drafted team)
Don't worry Alex, I will sing the songs honoring your 2017 conquest for now and forevermore! As I've said before and will keep saying, his auto-drafted team in the 6 slot nearly made the playoffs two years ago. Of course, he also shows heavy talent when he drafts in person.
3) Brandon Gaede (ADP 6, GSV 5.6, has drafted in the miraculous five slot)
Two champions have drafted in the five slot. One of these was Brandon Gaede. Taking Marshawn Lynch with the fifth pick in the 2015 draft, Brandon's Hall-Of-Fame team defeated another Hall-Of-Fame team in Ethan Maas to take the title in what will go down as one of the most legendary upsets in League history.
2) Kaelan Carlson (ADP 3, GSV 6.03, drafted in the top five four times)
He's won two titles, but it hasn't all been luck. Kaelan paid his dues in the four slot - but he has never drafted beyond the top six, and this year will be his fifth drafting in the top five.
1) Aaron Green (ADP 6.66, GSV 5.46, will draft in the miraculous five slot for the second time)
"You were the chosen one, Aaron!"
Seriously. The gods set it up for you. You just had to take it! But he hasn't yet. Now you have another chance. The gods predict that with this pick, you will finish third. Don't disappoint the gods.
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2019 BREAKFAST LEAGUE DRAFT ORDER
1. RJ Dechow
6. Alex Annan
8. Al Ohlinger
10. Sean Alumbaugh
11. Ethan Maas
12. Eli Thompson
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