Welcome to the 2019 Breakfast League everyone. Once again, the league continues to improve, and because of that, the margin for error gets slimmer and slimmer. As you review the rankings below, the first thing I want you to notice is that 75% of the teams have a draft grade of a B or higher. There were not many bad drafts here. Second, as far a record goes, I’m projecting over half the league to have a shot at the playoffs on the final weekend. There are some darn good teams here, but as competitions go, there has to be a winner and a loser in each game, which means someone has to lose those games. So remember that a low ranking is not a slight on you personally, and this is just my opinion. Feel free to share your reactions with me afterward.
Second, I’d like to go over my methodology I used to rank these teams. The most important positions I looked at are your top two RB’s and WR’s, since this is where the bulk of fantasy scoring comes from. If you’re not strong at both, that’s a major dock in my eyes. Second, I look at depth at those positions. With the flex included, there’s five spots in your starting lineup to be covered by these players, and plenty of bye weeks throughout the season to consider. That’s not even including the possibility of injuries. So depth at RB and WR is also very important. Third, I look at your QB and TE spots, which are more replaceable but still important. These are the three main points you’ll hear me harp on over and over below.
Finally, I’d like to gift everyone a custom-made team logo with your team colors you’ve selected. These took a non-insignificant amount of effort, so I hope you enjoy them. They’re all .png format, so I think you can use them as your ESPN logo if you’d like. I tried to make them all square so they’d fit nice, but I’m not sure yet how they would look on the site. If you don’t use them, I won’t be offended, just thought it would be fun to do. Now, without further ado, my preseason power rankings for 2019.
1. Crazy Train
Team Owner: Sean Alumbaugh
2018 Record: (8-3), 2nd Place
Projected 2019 Record: (8-3)
Team MVP: Joe Mixon
Veteran Breakfast League member Sean Alumbaugh has had some wild rides aboard his train over the years, and has come close to winning it all, falling just short twice. I predict that this is the year he finally breaks through. Like I said in my opening, I’m looking first at your best two RB’s and WR’s to see how I think they stack up, and CT’s are excellent. David Montgomery was one of the best running backs I’ve ever seen Iowa play against in college (a list that includes Barkley and McCaffery). Thomas and Cooks are both top options on high powered offenses. And Cam Newton in my opinion is the third best fantasy quarterback when he’s healthy. The depth is there on the bench too, and I like the cuffing of Mixon with Bernard. All in all, this adds up to the best team in my eyes, pre-season.
Draft Grade: A
2. Colorado Farmers
Team Owner: Alex Annan
2018 Record: (8-3), 3rd Place
Projected 2019 Record: (8-3)
Team MVP: Ezekiel Elliot
On draft night, before I went to bed, I typed up a quick preliminary list of the teams. Of course, this was before we knew if Zeke was going to play. I had this team 9th. That’s right, Zeke playing bumps this team up seven spots. If we knew 100% that Zeke would play, I would consider him a strong candidate for number one overall choice. And while Matt Brieda provides decent depth, having him as your every week RB2 would not have been great. Deshaun Watson was criminally underrated by ESPN, so snagging him in the 6th was a steal, as I think he’s the 2nd best QB fantasy wise overall. I’ve already praised the RB’s and QB’ and haven’t even mentioned the strongest position on the team: WR. Allen, Woods, Gordon, and Landry? Get out of here, that’s excellent. Again, good depth at all positions means that I think Alex is playoff bound for the third year in a row.
Draft Grade: A
3. Team Suspension
Team Owner: Kaelan Carlson
2018 Record: (3-8), 11th Place
Projected 2019 Record: (7-4)
Team MVP: Christian McCaffery
I think Kaelan’s strength as a fantasy player has always been the draft, and that shows as he rarely makes many waiver wire moves throughout the season. However, last year I think Team Suspension slipped up a bit in that regard and didn’t really recover over the course of the season. However, I think that was just an off year and Team Suspension will be back this year. This is a strong team, and there’s a reason why picking 2nd overall is a good place to be. McCaffery and Chubb are two RB1’s on the same team, and the WR’s are nothing to sneeze at either. I wonder how Brown will do with the Raiders, but he’s been the best WR in this league before so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him perform well. You’ve heard me say similar about the other two teams thus far, but again, depth is great overall. That’s why I think these 3 teams are in the top tier of the league, and why I think Team Suspension will be back in the playoffs.
Update: We learned today that Brown will likely be suspended. I’m not changing the placement of this team yet, but it’s something to keep an eye on. Team Suspension is back in full force now!
Draft Grade: A
4. Punting Is Winning
Team Owner: Al Ohlinger
2018 Record: (8-3), 5th Place
Projected 2019 Record: (7-4), 4th Place
Team MVP: Deandre Hopkins
Ranking myself is always the hardest thing to do in this each year, especially when I get nearly everyone I was targeting in the draft. So of course I like my team. But to be fair, in the three years I’ve been in this league, I’ve finished 4th, 4th, and 5th, so this placement at least has history behind it. And yes, that means I’m predicting myself to make the playoffs, sue me. Here’s my rational: I’ve got the best overall WR and two borderline RB1’s. I think Sanders, Pettis, Kirk, and Njoku are all young players that have great promise and give me good depth. And I also cuffed Cook in case he gets hurt. (You’ll notice I didn’t cuff last year with Bell, and that didn’t work out too well for me.) My weakest position is QB, and that’s not insignificant with 6 point passing touchdowns. But it’s still serviceable enough that I can put myself at 4th overall and not feel like too much of a homer.
Draft Grade: A-
5. Davante’s Inferno
Team Owner: Jared Kmiecik
2018 Record: (4-7), 10th Place
Projected 2019 Record: (7-4)
Team MVP: Davante Adams
In my initial ranking, I had Jared and Davante’s Inferno a bit higher, until we learned that Zeke will play. Alas, Pollard, we hardly knew ye. This, by the way, is my second favorite team name this year and would be my favorite if Dan didn’t have that on lock. Adams is the second-best fantasy wide receiver in my opinion, and that’s where the strength of this team lies. Getting Damien Williams in the 6th was also a steal, and I can’t believe the starting running back for the Chiefs went that late. And, if Gordon doesn’t play, watch out for Justin Jackson, who I think is the better of the two Chargers backups. If all that wasn’t enough, I think Kyler Murray is a future star and will jump right into Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense with ease. This team is clearly a playoff contender and one injury to any of the previous four teams could bump them right up there.
Draft Grade: A-
6. Stop Looking At My Peter, Man
Team Owner: Dan Jackson Jr.
2018 Record: (2-9), 7th Place
Projected 2019 Record: (7-4)
Team MVP: Alvin Kamara
Dan is back at it again with the top tier fantasy names, and this might be the best one yet. Overall, I think this is a very solid team. I like the starting lineup, like I do with most teams, but I’m not quite sure as much on the depth here. That’s what happens when you take a D/ST and kicker early. Sadly, I couldn’t get Kittle in the 13th like last year, but he’s an excellent tight end. The only position I don’t really like on this team is QB, as I think Jameis just isn’t very good, but they should still have to throw the ball a lot considering their division. Overall just a very solid team that should have a chance to compete for the playoffs.
Draft Grade: B+
7. Turn Left And Goff
Team Owner: RJ Dechow
2018 Record: (9-2), 4th Place
Projected 2019 Record: (6-5)
Team MVP: Saquon Barkley
As I’m looking over this team again, I’m starting to think maybe I should have put them higher. But then again, I think the top seven teams are incredibly close right now. The RB’s are studs, and with Gordon likely sitting out, Ekeler is set to get lots of work for the Chargers. The reason I don’t have this team higher, is I think the WR’s are big question marks. Yes, Cooper’s pretty good, but he has Dak throwing to him, who I think is terrible. (Btw, why does ESPN project Dak for 25 points, which is way more than everyone else, including Mahomes?) The TE position also looks suspect, and there are two kickers rostered for some reason. Still, there is definitely potential for a lot of the players I just mentioned, and I could be completely wrong about them, which is why I still think this team will contend for the playoffs.
Draft Grade: B+
8. Memphis Mayfield
Team Owner: Kenny Pancake
2018 Record: (8-3), 1st Place
Projected 2019 Record: (5-6)
Team MVP: Mike Evans
I was in the room on draft day with Kenny when disaster struck. He overthought his first round pick way too much, and made the only bad selection of that round. Gurley as 4th overall was way too early with his injury concerns, and that backfield is looking like a total committee situation. David Johnson would have been a much safer choice. And the RB2 is in Seattle’s backfield? I’m not liking the RB situation here. The rest of the team is still fine, however, and I really like Baker Mayfield. There’s some good strength at WR. I do think drafting 2 D/ST’s is pointless though. Kenny always come on strong later in the season, so we’ll see how this goes, but right now, I just have this team as a fringe playoff contender. This is only slightly related, but here is as good a place to mention as any. Kenny re-randomized the schedule this year so we don’t always play the same teams at the same time of year, so if people’s strength is drafting or throughout the season, now you have a chance to play them at a different time, which is good.
Draft Grade: B-
9. Lincoln Riley’s Offense
Team Owner: Brandon Gaede
2018 Record: (8-3), 8th Place
Projected 2019 Record: (4-7)
Team MVP: David Johnson
Toward the bottom here, there are a couple of teams that took a TE early, and Brandon’s team was one of them. So yes, LRO will be strong here, but I think it shows a bit at the depth of the other positions, which I don’t see as strong as the previous teams. This team is strong at RB (Henderson could be a good steal) and TE but has exactly two good WR’s. And having Tom Brady as your QB1 is certainly a decision. But, despite all that, this is still a solid team, and really, the criticisms above are kind of nitpicky. As evidenced by my grade, this was still a solid draft, and despite the win total I gave them, the team won’t be an easy out. This league is so much better, but someone still has to lose half the games.
Draft Grade: B-
10. Guice Time Turn Up The Ertz
Team Owner: Aaron Green
2018 Record: (5-6), 6th Place
Projected 2019 Record: (3-8)
Team MVP: Tyreek Hill
What I just said about an early TE for LRO also holds true for Aaron here, except instead of being weaker at WR, he’s weaker at RB, which in my eyes, is worse. There’s only 3 RB’s rostered, and Guice is in a total committee at Washington. The lack of depth at RB alone puts them this low, because the rest of the team is solid. There’s a ton of WR talent and TE is good as well. Just like last year, this is still not an easy out and this team has the potential to blow up in any given week. However, this is the first team I don’t really see as a playoff contender unless some major things happen here and elsewhere.
Draft Grade: C+
11. Calculated Madness
Team Owner: Ethan Maas
2018 Record: (1-10), 12th Place
Projected 2019 Record: (3-8)
Team MVP: Odell Beckham, Jr.
After crunching the numbers here, I just don’t think team has the depth most of the league has on their bench. And while Mahomes is clearly the best fantasy QB in the league, he was not worth a first round pick. In fact, the first two QB’s taken both went to this team within the first six rounds. The running backs here are RB2’s at best and possibly worse than that. I think the Titans are just bad, and therefore having Walker as your TE1 is suspect. Also, a kicker and D/ST were taken too early. This team is strong at WR and QB, and those positions will have to carry it, but I just don’t see it happening this year for Ethan.
Draft Grade: C+
12. The Rampaging Koala Bears
Team Owner: Eli Thompson
2018 Record: (2-9), 9th Place
Projected 2019 Record: (1-10)
Team MVP: Julio Jones
This is the only auto-draft in the league, and it shows. Again, exactly 3 RB’s rostered, and two of them are Melvin Gordon (who is likely not going to play) and Derrick Henry, who is on the Titans. The starting lineup isn’t terrible, if only because auto-drafting fills out your starters before going to the bench. But you’ve already heard my opinion of Dak, and the entire bench is just WR’s that everyone else passed on. The Koala Bears will have to do a lot of work to bring this team back and make it a contender.
Draft Grade: D
Week 1 Preview:
An early season matchup between two teams I project to make the playoffs. This game has always been the last week of the regular season, so we’ll see how it goes for the opening week.
Zeke being back is huge, but him missing lots of practice could affect his performance. However, I still think the rest of the lineup is strong enough to get a W here for Alex.
I praised Kaelan’s depth, and it will already be tested with Brown being suspended. However, Team Suspension are pros at this kind of thing, and I think will win this matchup.
Auto draft teams are actually the strongest at the start of the season where a lack of depth hasn’t caught up to them yet. But if Gordon stays in the starting lineup there should be no issues for Jared.
If the records are close to what I have them projected, this could already be an important matchup considering the playoffs. As we learned last year, tiebreaks are oh so important to have, and this tossup matchup could be a key one.
I may not be high on these teams right now, but they are still solid, and both have excellent owners capable of improving the rosters. Both would like to start off with a win to get the season off on the right trajectory.
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