It's the best week of the fantasy season in my opinion!!! Bubble week - the week that tears the souls out of the lesser competitors, the week that crowns regular season champions and playoff competitors... THE DRAMA!!!
This ranking is a little different, since the Bubble Tracker Technology (tm) is the main feature here... I'll give you my 12, and then go over the scenarios for each team.
12. Coronavirus Crowns
11. Waddlin Tua MAHOMIES
10. FloridaState SeminalVesicles
9. That's Football
8. Premarital Fournettecation
7. Cassius Darsh
6. Crazy Train
5. Morning Chubb
4. Can You Diggs It? - Wilson sucks, and Wentz' rushing game is so good that he sucks too
3. Koo Koo Ka Choo - On a tear recently
2. Conner Party - I mean he has 9 wins
1. Team Suspension - Scored 100+ in past four weeks, most consistent!!!!!
I probably spent the least time on those that I ever have!!! It's been a long day at work... but I do have a VERY important disclaimer. This year, the competition is especially close in Points For. In MANY of these scenarios, a tiebreaker that comes down to PF (marked with a handy ^) MAY COMPLETELY CHANGE depending on HOW MANY POINTS each team scores.
Example time! In Row 37, where Ethan, Connor, Kenny, RJ, Sean and Daren all win, the playoff order would be this:
Jared
Connor
Kenny
RJ
Daren
Sean
BUT - let's say that those same results hold up, however; let's add that Kenny outscores Connor by 30 points. Suddenly, it all changes - Kenny takes the first round bye, and Connor has to play a first round matchup next week. So it is entirely possible that the results lead you to row, say, 5, but the final six playoff teams don't equal what Al has there. Fun, eh? All these scenarios I will go over assume that the Points For standings remain AS IS CURRENTLY. Fortunately, you can see where that would function by following Al's keys on the first picture. Let's say a row looks like this:
KMIE - KOO^ - IHOP^* - CHUB^* - CD* - OZZY** - CARL**
What does this equal? Well, we know that * means head to head, and we know that ^ means based on PF. We also know that when you win a tiebreaker, you're done fighting tiebreakers and you're in the playoffs. In THIS scenario, Kmiecik is in with a superior record. KOO, IHOP and CHUB are tied, so they go to head-to-head... but they've played an uneven number of games between themselves. So, we have to move to the next tiebreaker. KOO wins in a battle of points for, so, he takes the next available seed. For the remaining two teams, the second symbol (a *) means that IHOP takes the next seed, but CHUB also takes the seed after that (as he has no third symbol behind his name, that indicates that his last tiebreaker also determined his position).
Now... THE PART YOU'VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR!!!!!
So... what does it MEEAYYYYN?!?!? WHAAT DOES IT MEEAYYNNN?!?!?!? Let's break it down:
NEEDS A LITTLE HELP:
Cassius Darsh: Daren's chances are near 60%. He has no chance at a first round bye, and a win offers no guarantees. Things need to fall just right for him. One trend: there are 12 out of all 64 scenarios where both Daren and Sean make the playoffs. In the vast majority of scenarios (52 of 64), only one of the two make it. Both need the other to lose. But a loss alone doesn't eliminate Daren's chances.
Crazy Train: While Sean has a better shot at higher seeds than Daren, his odds of making the playoffs are also near 60%. He could get as high as the third seed... but, a win will not be enough for Sean to make the playoffs, where he would inevitably finish second. It's hard for me to pick out a trend right now. But, a Daren loss would sure help. Sean can still lose and get in - but it's hard.
WIN AND YOU'RE IN:
Morning Chubb: RJ is in a fun scenario. He could be the #1 seed and win the regular season. Or... he could miss the playoffs entirely. If he can win, and Kaelan, Ethan and Alex win as well, he gets the #1 seed. But even if Jared beats Ethan - and RJ, Kaelan and Alex win - he gets a first round bye.
The dreaded scenario? If That's Football, Crazy Train and Cassius Darsh all win, RJ is sitting on his couch for the playoffs. Oh, wait, he would be doing the same thing if he was IN the playoffs. Whatevs.
Team Suspension: Kaelan has just over a 3% chance of missing out on the playoffs. On the other hand, he also has just over a 6% chance of getting the first seed, but with a nearly 44% chance of locking up a first round bye.
For the first seed, he'll need a win, and wins from Ethan, Alex and Al. His nightmare scenario comes in play if he loses - and, if Connor, RJ, Sean and Daren win. Then, he's out - but he's in control of his own destiny.
Can You Diggs It?: Chances at a regular season title are spent for me; however, I have over 96% odds of landing in the playoffs! I also have a 25% chance of landing a first round bye. My nightmare scenario comes when I lose to Kaelan (which is bad enough, letting him win a 10th game against me), and when Alex, RJ, Sean and Daren win their matchups. In an ideal world, I and Alex win - giving me the first round bye.
LOCKED UP:
Koo Koo Ka Choo: According to Al's Bubble Tracker, Connor has locked up a playoff spot!!! But ESPN seems to think there's an alternate scenario that Al has not predicted... this could be in the rare event that a significant shift in scored points changes a Points For tiebreaker somewhere in one or two scenarios.
Connor has a 25% chance of getting a first-week bye in the playoffs... he needs to win against Alex Annan, AND he needs Can You Diggs It to win.
Conner Party: Jared is the ONLY other team owner to have locked up a playoff spot heading into the final week!!! But there's only an 85% chance that he doesn't get the #1 seed. What would have to happen for him to lose the lead???
- Of course, Jared would have to lose to Coronavirus Crowns, who has Murray back;
- Then, FloridaState Seminal Vesicles would have to beat Koo Koo Ka Choo
Boom. Done. Good luck, and watch the POINTS FOR totals for tiebreakers! It just means more.
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