Have you ever wondered why I can’t do my playoff scenario chart two weeks out? Well, the number of possible scenarios is 2^n, where n is the number of relevant games left on the schedule. With two weeks left, that number is 8, resulting in 256 possible scenarios, which I definitely don’t have time to figure out. However because of the wins and losses, I can do a few in my head to see who’s probably in and who’s probably eliminated. Read below to find out exactly who still has a shot!
1. Team Suspension (9-0)
Last Week: Win vs Memphis Mayfield 144-102.6
Not only has Team Suspension been the best all year, it has been the most consistent. They have not scored less than 100 points in any games this year, and only one game has been under 119. For reference, the league average right now is 108.1, so that’s astonishing to say the least. Congrats to Team Suspension for clinching the first seed in the playoff with two weeks still to go. Now we’ll see if Kaelen can complete the first ever undefeated regular season in Breakfast League history. I’m bringing this point up now because I’m hoping to jinx it. But, looking at the last two games, I don’t see a loss there. Maybe Kaelan will flex and rest all his players week 11 to get them ready for the playoffs. Who knows what the madman will do next?
2. Turn Left and Goff (7-2)
Last Week: Win vs Punting is Winning 163 - 116.8
What a time for your best week of the year! Russell Wilson is a fantasy god, but Tyler Lockett is exactly the player to own against him. But other than Lockett and the Cowboys D/ST to an extent, there were no truly outstanding performances, and 163 is a heck of a score to put up with that fact in mind. If the rest of the team continues to play this solid, this is now the clear number 2 team in my eyes. The only thing RJ has struggled with this year though is consistency, so we’ll see if the floor can be that high in the playoffs. That’s right, even in the worst case scenario, RJ’s excellent tiebreakers and PF have clinched him a spot in the playoffs. (Unless Crazy Train somehow surpassed him in PF in two weeks.) Now it’s time to play for seeding, and a win this week can clinch the two or three seed since LRO and PIW play each other.
3. Punting Is Winning (6-3)
Last Week: Loss vs Turn Left and Goff 116.8 - 163
Welp, I put up a mediocre score line, and RJ smashed me. Not much you can do about that. Because of the way the matchups work out, if I win at least one of my last two, I’m guaranteed a playoff spot, but if I lose both, I’m almost guaranteed to miss them. A couple weeks ago it didn’t seem there would be much drama for the playoffs, but there’s still some chaos that could happen here.
4. Lincoln Riley’s Offense (6-3)
Last Week: Loss vs Crazy Train 59.6 - 92.4
Byes killed Brandon’s team last week, but even considering that, this was a putrid scoreline. With Thielen injured, the WR position is now extraordinarily thin. The tiebreakers are too complicated to work out right now with two weeks to play left, but beat me this week and LRO should feel very good about making the playoffs. That’s something Brandon’s never done in FF by the way: beat me. Can he overcome that demon here? He’ll have to do it without one of his unironically best players: the Patriots D/ST.
5. Crazy Train (5-4)
Last Week: Win vs Lincoln Riley’s Offense 92.4 - 59.6
Now that’s what I’m talking about. Some craziness just got injected into the playoff race last week with the GINORMOUS win vs LRO. Two wins are now required. Will they be tough to get against the Farmers and Saving Private Ryan? Definitely. Is this team as good as its record? Probably not. Will they need some help elsewhere even with two wins? Probably. But with that win, could what we expected for the playoffs now go entirely off the rails? Hell yeah!
6. Colorado Farmers (4-5)
Last Week: Loss vs The Rampaging Koala Bears 97.9 - 102
Ouch, that was a backbreaker. As Alex said, “I hate Fantasy Football.” It just seems like Alex is cursed versus the perennial bottom dweller Koala Bears, as he has still never beaten them, despite coming into the year with the second best all time winning percentage in the league. All is not lost yet however, as this team is still not mathematically eliminated. Two weeks of games is too complicated for me to work out all but the most outlier scenarios, but this team is still in it. Two wins are required, obviously. And Alex needs me to beat Brandon this week as Alex gets a shot at him in week 11. Those results would put Brandon in a tiebreaker with Alex (and possibly other teams), and Alex would have at least one win there. He’s also within 100 PF of Brandon and is the best of the rest in that category. We’ll see how it plays out, but Alex is not out of it yet.
7. Calculated Madness (4-5)
Last Week: Loss vs Saving Private Ryan 98.9 - 102.4
This paragraph is going to be eerily similar to the one I just wrote about Alex’s team. This was another backbreaking loss versus a bottom 4 team. However, Ethan is not yet mathematically eliminated. Two wins are required, obviously. And Ethan needs Brandon to beat me this week as Ethan gets a shot at me in week 11. Those results would put Ethan in a tiebreaker with me (and possibly other teams), and Ethan would have at least one win there. Now, his PF is not nearly as close as Alex’s was, so I’m not sure how the tiebreakers would work out yet, but again, there’s still a tangible shot.
8. Memphis Mayfield (4-5)
Last Week: Loss vs Team Suspension 102.6 - 144
You know, Kenny’s team has been doing better the past couple of weeks and probably deserves to be ranked at least 7th or 6th from a PR perspective. But unfortunately, despite it mathematically still being possible to make the playoffs, I think Kenny’s eliminated, because his tiebreakers stink. The only relevant win that can possibly come into a tiebreaker scenario is the one against me, and Memphis Mayfield can’t pick up another one in the next two weeks (RJ is 3 wins ahead). They have already lost to all the teams from #4-#7. This team being in a tiebreaker could still be relevant for some other teams with two wins, but I just don’t think they have any paths. Besides, dropping the player your team is named after just has cursed written all over it.
Teams #9-12 (3-1 record last week!)
These teams are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. I commend ya’ll on keeping at it, and I want to recognize the spoiler role two of you played last week from Eli and Aaron. Those wins mattered. Dan also picked up his second win of the year, and any win at this point has to feel good. Hopefully everyone learned some lessons and can come back stronger, better, and luckier next year!
Next Week’s Lineup:
Not only is the winner of this game likely be guaranteed a playoff spot, but this game will also help determine the playoff fates of all the teams behind them. In general: if you are playoff relevant and have beaten one of these two teams, you want them to lose this week so they can possibly be in a tiebreaker with you.
This matchup is loser goes home, winner may still have a shot depending on other results. Another huge one.
RJ can clinch a top three seed here with a win where Alex needs a win to keep hope alive.
#8 Memphis Mayfield vs The Rampaging Koala Bears
We’ll see if Kenny can get a win here and make my scenario chart next week that much more complicated.
#1 Team Suspension vs Stop Looking at my Peter, Man
Saving Private Ryan vs Davante’s Inferno
Nothing but pride on the line in these two matchups!
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