Week Four Power Rankings
***Disclaimer: This power ranking does not reflect any implications from the Melvin Gordon return to the Chargers due to recentness of news***
Things I know, and things I don’t.
For example, I know that no matter how good the Rampaging Koala Bears look, they’ll never compete if Eli doesn’t change his lineup weekly (nudge nudge)!
I also know that when you do a power ranking, you label it with the week you’re about to play, not the one you just played (looking at you, Mr. “Week Two Power Ranking” Al! 😉 ).
Another thing I know: only one team in Breakfast League history has come back from 0-3 to enter the playoffs. That team was Sean Alumbaugh’s first (he began 0-3 and even 1-5; however, in a glorious display of fantasy savvy and skill, he kept up the fight and made it all the way to the Championship game. Sadly, he lost (he only needed six more points!!!). Also sadly, this means that I can pretty confidently say I am out of playoff contention – along with my poor friends Jared Kmiecik and Alex Annan. Unlike 2014, any 0-3’ers don’t have the advantage of 13 total regular season matchups anymore.
Things I don’t know – I know that what I don’t know is a lot. Who does end up making the playoffs in a tight year like this one? Who will the Kelce/Ingram for Cook trade work for best: Brandon or Al? And why in hell do Todd Gurley and Stefon Diggs only have 46.2 fantasy points between them over three frickin’ weeks?!?!?!? Gaat%$&hw(oegib t;ftuk&##7y4w(#5p3w9*&^ g0^9er!!!!! *throws laptop*
Nevertheless, I’m going to attempt to address these issues, and many others during my first power ranking of the 2019 season. As always, I start from the bottom, I pull no punches, and I combine ESPN’s best metrics (including their own final standings projection system) along with my experienced fantasy football brain.
And heeeere weeeee GO!
12. Davante’s Inferno: 0-3, 236.1 Points For [12th], 7 moves [3rd]
Standings: 12th – ESPN Projection: 12th – Top Ten Talent: 2
I won’t rehash the draft, which is why I’m honestly confused as to why Kyler Murray is the only quarterback on Jared’s roster. A rookie, with a bad team, and the dude’s 5’10”. About as short as Jared’s win total column at the end of the season. I hope he finds someone better in light of the Roethelisberger injury (there’s no way I spelled his name right is there???). What’s funny is that ESPN originally predicted him to finish seventh. I guess ESPN really likes Roethlisbergerhgwvbrkverjvn.
At least he’s trying – as he so clearly showed when he shared a screenshot of his D/ST shopping. Yes, he was looking at Miami. And yes, the app made fun of him as hard as we all did. That’s all I have to say on that one. Sorry, J-Dog.
I will give him credit for one thing: Jared is tied for first in PA (meaning he has had more scoring against him than anyone else in the league with the exception of who he is tied with). I guess that’s less credit, and more of an excuse… but Jared will take what he can get!
11. Memphis Mayfield: 0-3, 277.5 Points For [11th], 5 moves [T-6th]
Standings: 11th – ESPN Projection: 11th – Top Ten Talent: 5
Sigh. I tried to rank myself higher, but I just couldn’t rationalize it. It looks like another year of failure for this beloved breakfast food. Hey, at least I have two titles to balance out the bad years!
To my credit, my errors were sort of surprises. While everyone thought Todd Gurley would be a risk, no one saw coming the points drought currently settling itself on top of the young albeit injured RB. And Stefon Diggs has been similarly underwhelming – all of the Minnesota work goes to Cook and Thielen nowadays. While some think my biggest flaw was drafting two D/ST’s, it’s obvious that my issues were cemented much earlier in the draft than that. Having five team members with top ten talent won’t help me now.
-------------------This is my totally useless, probably wrong playoff cutoff--------------------------
10. Crazy Train: 2-1, 286.7 Points For [10th], 5 moves [T-6th]
Standings: 6th – ESPN Projection: 10th – Top Ten Talent: 3
Surprised?
I have the stats to back it up – look at the ESPN projection, the Points For up until now, and the total count of players in the top ten at their respective positions currently. There’s no doubt – the Crazy Train is coming for a derailment.
Especially because the injury bug has been brutal for him. Sean has lost Hunter Henry AND both of his QB’s – Brees and Newton, who usually seem dependable. Gardner Minschew is holding the team together for now – we will see if Sean becomes willing to make a few more moves. Perhaps that’s why all of his T3 (Top Ten Talent) is comprised of D/ST’s and K’s.
The only reason I still consider him in the running for a playoff spot is because he has already locked up two wins. Get dem dubs.
9. Saving Private Ryan: 1-2, 308.6 Points For [9th], 6 moves [T-4th]
Standings: 8th – ESPN Projection: 7th – Top Ten Talent: 4
With Tyreek Hill injured, this team has question marks – but not as many as the teams below this owner (who has the strange habit of taking many Native American tribal leaders into his team).
Yes, we have made fun of Aaron for taking the Chiefs players all too often, but this time, he chose to pass on Mahomes. That doesn’t stop him from picking them up on the waiver wire later though…
The injury loss of Derrius Guice hurts this team a tad, but he has only dropped one spot since the draft in ESPN’s projections.
8. The Rampaging Koala Bears: 1-2, 337.9 Points For [7th], 0 moves [12th]
Standings: 9th – ESPN Projection: 9th – Top Ten Talent: 5
Hey, Eli… (nudge)… Eli, wake up… (poke)… ELI! WAKE UP!!! YOUR FLEX PLAYER IS HOLDING OUT!!! (late correction – you good bro, you good…)
Usually, when an owner auto-drafts, it’s a sign of weakness. According to ESPN, it was quite the opposite for Eli. ESPN began the season by putting him 2nd likeliest to win the league. It was a killer lineup – albeit with some risks the computer hasn’t been trained to avoid, like a holdout RB. Seriously though – Dak is doing great, a T3 of five, Julio Jones… this team could be Eli’s first to do amazing things. If he would JUST CHANGE HIS LINEUP!?!?!?!
7. Turn Left and Goff: 2-1, 347 Points For [6th], 1 move [11th]
Standings: 5th – ESPN Projection: 8th – Top Ten Talent: 5
Trending down, RJ Dogchow (it will never die, RJ!!!) was originally projected to finish in fifth before sliding to his current ESPN projection. That’s probably due to one sneaky, slippery, slick running back we all know as Saquon Barkley – his first round draft pick. While RJ awaits Barkley’s return, he traded Brandon Gaede for Wayne Gallman – Barkley’s backup.
If Barkley is out for the 8-week ceiling estimate, that leaves RJ without his first pick until the playoffs. Can he hang on until then? It’ll be tough. It may depend on how much the Giants run – and, since they’ll probably be playing from down for most of their season despite Daniel Jones… it doesn’t look good.
For the price, it was a great buy… but it’s something you can’t recover from. Ask Jared Kmiecik and David Johnson, circa 2017. The exception is if Barkley comes back in four weeks instead of eight. Do that, and RJ is still in serious playoff contention.
6. Colorado Farmers: 0-3, 320.2 Points For [8th], 5 moves [T-6th]
Standings: 10th – ESPN Projection: 4th – Top Ten Talent: 4
Sean must be furious at me right now.
Hey, what can I say? According to ESPN, I’m actually lowballing Alex. The only reason I rank him sixth is simple odds. Like I said – only one person has come back from an 0-3 start to get into the playoffs, and Sean (ironic) had 10 games to make up for it. Alex only has eight. That being said, 8-3 would have put his team in contention to enter the playoffs in 2018, AND would have him enter the 2017 playoffs as the #1 seed, where the best regular season record was 7-4 (by Alex, Kaelan, myself and Al in that year). Now, will Alex rattle off eight straight? Doubtful. That’s why he’s outside the playoffs for me.
That being said, his roster seems like a playoff roster right now. ESPN says so too. The amount of scoring he has faced is third-highest to this point (PA: 365.2) which could explain the gap.
Also, the dude is grabbing free agents from the retirement home. You aren’t out-Witten us, Alex.
5. Stop Looking at my Peter, Man: 1-2, 354.6 Points For [5th], 9 moves [1st]
Standings: 7th – ESPN Projection: 6th – Top Ten Talent: 5
The dude has cajones. After all, he is slated to start Daniel Jones this week. I can’t blame him, mainly because it is the Redskins (Jones’ opponent this week) that gave up three passing touchdowns to a QB on Monday that hadn’t thrown for one yet this year.
It’s a stacked roster, and Daniel has shown that he is willing to go at the waiver wire to get things done. That being said, his ESPN odds have gone from the post-draft prediction of third to sixth. Let’s not forget that only Jared has faced as many points scored against his team as Dan has – and it’s a tie at a PA of 383.4 for both teams.
4. Lincoln Riley’s Offense: 2-1, 360.6 Points For [4th], 8 moves [2nd]
Standings: 4th – ESPN Projection: 5th – Top Ten Talent: 6
Brandon Gaede may finally return to the playoffs after miserable suffering ever since he won his first and only Breakfast League title. Why? Mainly because he has the T3 talent in spades. He’s making the moves necessary to win.
He made a key move this week with a trade, and as it turns out, Brandon has been a member of all three trades processed in the league to this point. In my opinion, all of these trades have been bad decisions. Dalvin Cook is good, but was he worth giving up Travis Kelce AND Mark Ingram (who are by chance also very good) to the top team in the league? And obviously, giving up Marquise Brown could be risky based on his success. We shall see how these work out.
3. Team Suspension: 3-0, 381.2 Points For [3rd], 2 moves [10th]
Standings: 3rd – ESPN Projection: 2nd – Top Ten Talent: 4
This roster is scary.
A budding QB in Lamar Jackson, who’s proving all the doubters wrong? Check. An elite-level RB? Check. Getting in to the LAR WR corps? Check.
This guy would be much higher, except that he went for the Antonio Brown drama. It may have paid off (for the one week he played), but now, it’s only a tribute to Kaelan’s tradition of picking up players with bad character. That being said… Kaelan does have two titles (what does that say about the NFL?).
It is simply amazing that Kaelan gets away with making only two moves and is still in the running to win a third title. Only the Carlson.
2. Calculated Madness: 3-0, 396.3 Points For [2nd], 3 moves [9th]
Standings: 2nd – ESPN Projection: 3rd – Top Ten Talent: 4
Ethan can finally redeem himself from achieving the worst overall record in Breakfast League history last year. And as it turns out, taking Patrick Mahomes so early might actually pay off – since Mahomes is proving himself to be so elite that he is a clear level above any other QB in the league thus far. Mahomes here is the key – but this team is stacked in other places to where he could lose Mahomes and still make a run. Go forth and lose no more, Ethan.
1. Punting is Winning: 3-0, 414.5 Points For [1st], 6 moves [T-4th]
Standings: 1st – ESPN Projection: 1st – Top Ten Talent: 6
Okay, at this point, I’ve run out of words, this is my third day of working on this ranking, and I have an appointment in ten minutes. Suffice it to say, this team is deadly and is a CLEAR favorite.
ESPN was dreadfully wrong on this team – first post-draft projected finish was 11th. They’ve now shaved one of those digits off the number. 😉
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