Please find each scenario for the playoff listed below.
Every matchup mattered this year! A bit of quick math shows that 2^6 is 64 total scenarios, but I condensed the chart down a bit with some tinkering in matchups that don't matter. Please read the PR below for more descriptions and explanations of what's shown if the charts above.
Better Luck Next Year!
12. From the Logo! (4-9)
There’s scenarios where I don’t finish last, but I’ve already figured out way too many. Besides, I probably won’t win anyway.
11. Koo Koo Ka Choo (5-8)
Not sure why ESPN eliminated Connor but not Kenny when they can both get in a 5 or 6 way tiebreak. Either way, Connor is losing H2H in one of the two scenarios, and he’s not passing Aaron in PF in the other, so he’s effectively eliminated.
10. It’s a Love Story Kelce Just Say (5-8)
Kenny’s in the exact same situation as Connor - two scenarios for a 5 or 6 way tiebreak, but no way he’s passing Aaron in PF in the one that matters.
So You’re Saying There’s a Chance
9. Old Yellers (5-8)
This is probably the most incredible scenario since I’ve begun doing these sheets 7 years ago (Wow!). If every matchup breaks correctly, (except FTL! Vs MO which doesn’t matter), there will be a 6 way tie for 6th place. And even more unbelievably, Daren of all people would win this tiebreak. Although H2H is the first tiebreak, there must be an equal number of games played between all teams for it to be used. Because division rivals play 2 games, unless there’s an equal number of teams from each division in the tiebreak, then H2H can’t be used. But because in this 6 way tiebreak there’s 2 teams from each division, then we CAN use the H2H, and Daren is 5-1, the best record. He also holds the tiebreaker for the 4 team tie without Kenny and Connor, because we can use H2H there as well. But if just one of Kenny or Connor is introduced to make it a 5 team tiebreak, then H2H can’t be used anymore because there’s not an equal number of teams in each division.
Shockingly, the 4 team tie seems super possible as well – that’d be Sean, Ethan, Daren, Alex, and Kaelan winning. So while it’s a long shot, Daren is not out of it!
On the Bubble
8. San Diego State Fightin’ Araizas (6-7)
Despite the 25% odds to get in, this one seems the least likely, because Dan would actually have to win. But we’ve seen it before, and this scenario’s simple – Dan must win and have Sean win as well. That’s it!
7. Love and Flowers (5-8)
RJ is the first team to have a shot to finish 5th. To get in the playoffs, RJ must win and Daren must win. If Aaron also won, RJ would be the 5 seed, otherwise he would be 6th. There could be a couple more scenarios if he passed Sean in PF, but he’d need 50+ points to do so, so that seems unlikely.
Control Their Own Destiny
6. Dobbsy is a Free Elf! (6-7)
Aaron controls his own destiny - win and you’re in. He also gets in on those 5 way ties mentioned above based on his awesome PF, but other than those, if he loses he’s out. This is for his first playoff birth in 8 years. No pressure.
5. Crazy Train (7-6)
Curse you Sean for being the only 7-6 team and making these scenarios so much more complicated, and wildly dependent on your matchup specifically. If Sean wins, he’s in and can be as high as the 4 seed if he can get a H2H tiebreak against just Kaelan. If he loses, he’s probably 6th, unless both RJ and Daren win - then he’s out.
Playoff Locks
4. Team Suspension (8-5)
While Kaelen can’t win the league (league rules state that the regular season champion must be a division winner, and Kaelan lost the H2H to Alex), he does still have a shot at the 2 seed and the bye. He is the only one of the current top 4 that can fall to 5th as well, losing a tiebreak with just Sean on H2H. One thing to watch - if he can pass Marie in PF, where he’s currently only 15 points behind, he could jump up a couple of seed lines depending on the scenario.
3. Iowa City Mo (8-5)
Marie has a chance to win the regular season title her first year in the league if she can win, and both Alex and Ethan lose - unlikely, but possible. If just one of them loses, she’ll get 2nd and the bye. In all tiebreaks her league leading PF is a huge benefit, and due to beating Sean in H2H, she can’t drop to 5th even with a loss.
2. Saquon Deez Nuts (9-4)
Ethan can win the regular season title if he wins and Alex loses, since he lost the H2H with Alex. Ethan controls his own destiny for the bye though. With a loss, he can only fall as far as 4th since he’s 2 games ahead of Sean with only one remaining.
1. Left Handed Corn Dogs
Alex controls his own destiny for his first regular season title since joining the league in 2016. Despite being a playoff regular, he’s never topped the standings. Win and he’s the champion. Even with a loss, he can still win the regular season if both Marie and Ethan lose. There’s nothing tricky with PF here - he just wins the relevant H2H tiebreaks.
Next Week’s Preview
Game of the week
Not only is this for Aaron’s first playoff birth, but lots of other outcomes around the league also rely on this game. It’s also only a 3 point spread going into Thursday night, so it should be a close one. This has everything you want in a fantasy matchup for the playoffs.
Alex wins the regular season with a win, while Connor only has pride left to play for. (That and helping to make a 6-way tie)
RJ must win and get help to make the playoffs, Ethan must win and get help to win the league. Both teams are looking for some assistance elsewhere.
This matchup probably has the least on the line, but given that Marie has a chance to win the regular season, it’s still a big one.
Not a ton on the line here, just seeding for Kaelan, but don’t tell that to these two. It’ll be no holds barred in the most heated Breakfast League rivalry.
So you’re saying there’s a chance….
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